Sho Shimabukuro vs Hubert HurkaczCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#90ATP
1672ELO
1606Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$1.0MCAREER
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#69ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
Shimabukuro S.
2-6 4-6
Hurkacz H.
Shimabukuro S.
240
Hurkacz H.
662

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Sho Shimabukuro in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 6-2, 6-4 in favor of Hurkacz. Hurkacz served 13 aces and converted 60% of his break points, securing three service breaks to Shimabukuro's zero.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
14.6
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
0
67
Break points saved·Dominant
70
99
Break points won·Clear edge
3
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
2
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Shimabukuro S.26%
Hurkacz H.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Hurkacz H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1606
Surface ELO
6.5+120 Hard Elo edge
3.4Overall Elo 1672
ELO gap
6.6Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.23 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.6Won 60% in Usa (25)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
75

Shimabukuro S.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw