Mark Lajal vs Juan Manuel CerundoloCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#51ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWLL
Lajal M.
4-6 4-6
Cerundolo J.
Lajal M.
440
Cerundolo J.
662

Juan Manuel Cerundolo defeated Mark Lajal in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-4, 6-4 on hard courts. Cerundolo converted 29% of break points and won 96% of first-serve points, while Lajal did not convert any break points. Cerundolo secured two service breaks to Lajal's zero, advancing in the tournament.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
76
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
80
Break points won·Dominant
13
71
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
95
Tiebreaks·Even
81
78

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Lajal M.42%
Cerundolo J.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cerundolo J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1556
Surface ELO
6.3+101 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1790
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.08 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
71
69

Lajal M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d) · Cerundolo J.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 70%

Draw