Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Cincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
Tomas Machac
CZE
Tomas Machac
#62ATP
1866ELO
1829Hard ELO
$832kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#72ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLWLW
Machac T.
3-6 2-6
Carreno Busta P.
Machac T.
320
Carreno Busta P.
662

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Tomas Machac in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 6-2 in favor of Carreno Busta.

Around the match

  • Returning from a left foot injury sustained at the French Open two and a half months ago, expected to be rusty in his Cincinnati comeback.

    Machac T.Last Word On Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Machac T.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Even
63%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
3.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Machac T.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
92
46
Break points saved·Even
95
93
Break points won·Dominant
92
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
14
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Machac T.61%
Carreno Busta P.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Machac T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Machac T.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+85 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1744
5.8Overall Elo 1866
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1800
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Machac T.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Slight edge
94
85

Machac T.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw