Titouan Droguet vs Matteo BerrettiniCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#111ATP
1717ELO
1650Hard ELO
$295kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#42ATP
1831ELO
1797Hard ELO
$902kYTD
$15MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWWW
Droguet T.
6-3 1-6 4-6
Berrettini M.
Droguet T.
6141
Berrettini M.
3662

Matteo Berrettini defeated Titouan Droguet in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 in favor of Berrettini. Berrettini served 9 aces and committed 4 double faults, while winning 89% of his first-serve points and converting 50% of break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
67%
Aces / match·Even
8.8
8.8
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
64
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
88
100
Break points won·Dominant
17
42
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Droguet T.35%
Berrettini M.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Berrettini M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1650
Surface ELO
6.8+147 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1717
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1831
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
72
72

Droguet T.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Berrettini M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw