Zachary Svajda vs Mattia BellucciCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#84ATP
1718ELO
1690Hard ELO
$631kYTD
$1.9MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#81ATP
1720ELO
1678Hard ELO
$597kYTD
$2.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 175 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWLWW
Svajda Z.
6-7 6-7
Bellucci M.
Svajda Z.
660
Bellucci M.
772

Mattia Bellucci defeated Zachary Svajda in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a 7-6, 7-6 victory for Bellucci. Both players recorded one service break and had identical numbers of aces, double faults, and conversion percentages for break and first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
75%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.3
5.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
22
41
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
95
Break points won·Dominant
58
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
6
50
Tiebreaks·Dominant
12
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Svajda Z.66%
Bellucci M.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Svajda Z. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+12 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1678
5.0Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1720
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
5.8Won 63% in Usa (67)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
85
72

Svajda Z.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Bellucci M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 91%

Draw