Nikola Bartunkova vs Alina CharaevaCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · WTA · Round of 128
#39WTA
1788ELO
1719Hard ELO
$767kYTD
$973kCAREER
20 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
#113WTA
1694ELO
1605Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWLLW
Bartunkova N.
4-6 6-4 6-3
Charaeva A.
Bartunkova N.
4662
Charaeva A.
6431

Nikola Bartunkova defeated Alina Charaeva in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 in favor of Bartunkova. Bartunkova and Charaeva were even in aces, 6-6, and close in several other categories including double faults (7-5), first-serve win percentage (67-65), break points converted percentage (38-29), and service breaks (5-4).

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-04-21MadridQ32clayAlina Charaeva6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(6)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
55%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
59%
59%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.2
Double faults / match·Even
4.7
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
72
56
Break points saved·Even
76
75
Break points won·Slight edge
90
85
Deciding sets·Slight edge
75
69
Tiebreaks·
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bartunkova N.79%
Charaeva A.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Bartunkova N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+115 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1605
6.2Overall Elo 1788
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1694
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.98 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
73
82

Bartunkova N.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Charaeva A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw