Khumoun Sultanov vs Mert AlkayaAstana Quarter-final

Astana · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#513ATP
1379ELO
1367Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#298ATP
1358ELO
1337Hard ELO
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWLL
Sultanov K.
7-6 6-3
Alkaya M.
Sultanov K.
7762
Alkaya M.
6530

Khumoun Sultanov defeated Mert Alkaya in the quarterfinals of the Astana tournament, winning 7-6, 6-3 on hard courts. Sultanov hit one ace and one double fault, winning 79 percent of his first serves and converting 33 percent of break points. Alkaya hit five aces and two double faults, winning 70 percent of his first serves and converting 50 percent of break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
44%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
71%
Aces / match·Even
4.6
4.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Sultanov K.64%
Alkaya M.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sultanov K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+30 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1337
5.3Overall Elo 1379
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1358
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
74
84

Sultanov K.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d) · Alkaya M.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 23%

Draw