Noah Zamora vs Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes — M25 East Lansing Round of 16

M25 East Lansing · ITF · Round of 16
USA
Noah Zamora
#789ATP
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
MEX
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
#838ATP
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWLW
Zamora N.
2-6 6-4 0-6
Alvarez Valdes L.
Zamora N.
2601
Alvarez Valdes L.
6462

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes defeated Noah Zamora 6-2, 4-6, 6-0 in the Round of 16 at the M25 East Lansing tournament. Alvarez Valdes won despite being broken on 65% of Zamora's break points, while converting 35% of his own. Alvarez Valdes secured six service breaks to Zamora's two en route to victory.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-06-13M15 San Diego 2R32hardNoah Zamora6-2 6-4

Statistics

This season
Zamora N.Alvarez Valdes L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
49%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
53%
77%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Zamora N.51%
Alvarez Valdes L.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Zamora N.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Alvarez Valdes L.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.82 of last 5 on hard
Surface form
2.52 of last 7 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.5Won 58% in Usa (72)
Country comfort
5.8Won 64% in Usa (25)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 96%

Draw