Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Final

Toronto · WTA · Final
Iga Swiatek
POL7
Iga Swiatek
#5WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 14 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 2nd on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
Swiatek I.
6-2 6-3
Rybakina E.
Swiatek I.
662
Rybakina E.
230

Iga Swiatek won the Toronto final, defeating Elena Rybakina 6-2, 6-3. Swiatek did not hit an ace but made one double fault, while Rybakina had one ace and four double faults. Swiatek converted 80% of her break points and won four service breaks to Rybakina's zero.

Key context

Head to head

7–7
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenQFhardElena Rybakina7-5 6-1
2025-11-03WTA FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina3-6 6-1 6-0
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina3-6 6-1 6-0
2025-08-07CincinnatiSFhardIga Swiatek7-5 6-3
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16clayIga Swiatek1-6 6-3 7-5
2025-02-09DohaQFhardIga Swiatek6-2 7-5
2025-01-04United CupSFhardIga Swiatek7-6(5) 6-4
2024-12-27United CupSFhardIga Swiatek7-6 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartSFclayElena Rybakina6-3 4-6 6-3
2024-02-12DohaFhardIga Swiatek7-6 6-2
2023-05-08RomeQFclayElena Rybakina2-6 7-6 2-2
2023-03-06Indian WellsSFhardElena Rybakina6-2 6-2
2023-01-16Australian OpenR16hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-4
2021-09-20OstravaQFhardIga Swiatek7-6 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
6.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Even
97
98
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
96
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
97
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Swiatek I.37%
Rybakina E.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakina E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swiatek I.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 2022
Surface ELO
6.1+88 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 2122
3.6Trails 2–3 on hard
H2H
6.4Leads 3–2 on hard
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.49 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Slight edge
63
56

Swiatek I.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw