Maria Sara Popa vs Ilay YorukW15 Bucharest 3 Round of 16

W15 Bucharest 3 · ITF · Round of 16
#430WTA
1412ELO
1395Clay ELO
21 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
clay
#846WTA
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLLLLW
Sara Popa M.
4-6 6-1 6-3
Yoruk I.
Sara Popa M.
4662
Yoruk I.
6131

Maria Sara Popa defeated Ilay Yoruk in the Round of 16 at the W15 Bucharest 3 tournament on clay, winning 4-6, 6-1, 6-3. Popa served one ace and committed 13 double faults, while Yoruk had no aces and five double faults. Popa won 66 percent of her first serves and converted 50 percent of her break points, compared to Yoruk's 47 percent on first serves and 62 percent on break points; Popa had 8 service breaks to Yoruk's 5.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-15W15 Antalya 16QFclayIlay Yoruk6-2 6-2
2023-05-13W15 Antalya 15SFclayMaria Sara Popa6-2 4-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
36%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
50%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
41%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
8.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Sara Popa M.75%
Yoruk I.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sara Popa M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.85 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.43 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw