Alexander Shevchenko vs C. O'Connell — Cincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · ATP · Q32
Alexander Shevchenko
KAZ5
Alexander Shevchenko
#89ATP
1669ELO
1642Hard ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
C. O'Connell
AUS
C. O'Connell
#129ATP
32 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLLWW
Shevchenko A.
4-6 1-6
O'Connell C.
Shevchenko A.
410
O'Connell C.
662

Chris O'Connell defeated Alexander Shevchenko 6-4, 6-1 in the qualifying second round of the Cincinnati hard court tournament. The match was part of the Q32 round. O'Connell won the match in straight sets.

Around the match

  • “Yeah, I mean look, I think it does change a little bit, especially Jannik not being here. He's basically won every masters that he's played this year. But for me, it doesn't change much. I still want to compete against the best and hopefully just show up with my tennis, play better than I did in Canada.”

    Shevchenko A.PFSN ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-10AdelaideR16hardC. O'Connell6-3 6-1

Statistics

This season
Shevchenko A.O'Connell C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
34%
35%
Break points saved·Even
64%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
8.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Shevchenko A.O'Connell C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
61
25
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
96
Break points won·Clear edge
27
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
90
5
Tiebreaks·Even
93
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Shevchenko A.50%
O'Connell C.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shevchenko A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
O'Connell C.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.35 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Shevchenko A.O'Connell C.
Freshness·Clear edge
83
71

Shevchenko A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d) · O'Connell C.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
19°CRain
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 94%

Draw