Marco Trungelliti vs Kei NishikoriCincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · ATP · Q32
#91ATP
1627ELO
1496Hard ELO
$400kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#479ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWLWLW
Trungelliti M.
4-6 7-5 6-3
Nishikori K.
Trungelliti M.
4762
Nishikori K.
6531

Marco Trungelliti defeated Kei Nishikori 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in the qualifying second round of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Trungelliti converted 50% of his break points, while Nishikori converted 32%. The match saw Trungelliti record 3 aces and 6 double faults, and Nishikori had 4 aces and 6 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-08-26US OpenR128hardKei Nishikori6-1 4-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
23
91
Break points saved·Clear edge
78
94
Break points won·Dominant
25
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
43
100
Tiebreaks·Dominant
11
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Trungelliti M.31%
Nishikori K.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Nishikori K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1496
Surface ELO
7.3+184 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1627
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1714
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
2.12 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
66
83

Trungelliti M.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d) · Nishikori K.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw