Daniel Michalski vs Lukas NeumayerTodi Round of 16

Todi · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#330ATP
1435ELO
1386Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLLLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#171ATP
1621ELO
1598Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$576kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLWLW
Michalski D.
6-4 5-7 0-6
Neumayer L.
Michalski D.
6501
Neumayer L.
4762

Lukas Neumayer defeated Daniel Michalski in the Round of 16 at the Todi tournament on clay, coming back from a set down to win 4-6, 7-5, 6-0. Neumayer hit 2 aces and 2 double faults, winning 72% of his first serves and converting 27% of break points. Michalski had 3 aces and 0 double faults, winning 63% of his first serves and converting 100% of break points; Neumayer secured 4 service breaks to Michalski's 1.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-05M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 5SFclayDaniel Michalski6-4 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
61%
Aces / match·Even
2.4
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
27
40
Break points saved·Dominant
24
71
Break points won·Dominant
26
62
Deciding sets·Dominant
64
11
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
62
86

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Michalski D.42%
Neumayer L.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Neumayer L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.3Clay Elo 1386
Surface ELO
7.7+212 Clay Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1435
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1621
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
83

Michalski D.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Neumayer L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 35%

Draw