Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia — Cincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · ATP · Q32
POR
Henrique Rocha
#126ATP
1676ELO
1574Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$883kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
Nicolas Mejia
COL
Nicolas Mejia
#122ATP
1477ELO
1424Hard ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
Rocha H.
5-7 6-4 3-6
Mejia N.
Rocha H.
5631
Mejia N.
7462

Nicolas Mejia defeated Henrique Rocha in the Cincinnati qualifying round 2, winning 7-5, 4-6, 6-3. Mejia and Rocha were even in aces with 12 each, while Mejia had fewer double faults with 2 to Rocha's 6. Mejia converted 60% of break points, compared to 40% for Rocha, and won 3 service breaks to Rocha's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Nicolas Mejia closed it out in three sets, 7–5 4–6 6–3.

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-22WimbledonQFgrassNicolas Mejia4-6 7-6 2-6

Statistics

This season
Rocha H.Mejia N.
1st serve in·Even
62%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
55%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
5.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rocha H.Mejia N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
26
Break points saved·Slight edge
67
74
Break points won·Clear edge
25
6
Deciding sets·Clear edge
57
40
Tiebreaks·Dominant
86
38

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Rocha H.53%
Mejia N.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rocha H.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mejia N.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+150 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1424
7.5Overall Elo 1676
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1477
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in Usa (48)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rocha H.Mejia N.
Freshness·Slight edge
82
72

Rocha H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Mejia N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw