Aleksandar Vukic vs Mark LajalCincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · ATP · Q32
#99ATP
1630ELO
1597Hard ELO
$366kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Vukic A.
7-6 3-6 4-6
Lajal M.
Vukic A.
7341
Lajal M.
6662

Mark Lajal defeated Aleksandar Vukic in the qualifying round 2 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, winning 6-7, 6-3, 6-4. Lajal served 21 aces to Vukic's 15 and converted 60 percent of his break points, compared to Vukic's 20 percent. Lajal won 85 percent of his first-serve points to Vukic's 73 percent and secured 3 service breaks to Vukic's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
34%
36%
Break points saved·Clear edge
55%
70%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.7
6.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
27
43
Break points saved·Even
90
89
Break points won·Slight edge
7
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
42
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
89
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Vukic A.43%
Lajal M.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.5+41 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1556
5.5Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1588
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
71

Vukic A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Lajal M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw