Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Semi-final

Toronto · WTA · Semi-final
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$4.1MYTD
$34MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
Gauff C.
7-5 2-6 2-6
Rybakina E.
Gauff C.
7221
Rybakina E.
5662

Elena Rybakina defeated Coco Gauff in the Toronto semifinals, coming back from a set down to win 5-7, 6-2, 6-2. Rybakina hit 5 aces to Gauff's 3 and converted 36% of her break points compared to Gauff's 25%. Rybakina won 74% of her first-serve points to Gauff's 63% and earned 4 service breaks to Gauff's 1.

Around the match

  • “I think the depth on the WTA tour is pretty strong. I feel like anybody can win on any day. It's difficult, it makes every match difficult.”

    Gauff C.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “She's a great fighter. I know it's going to be very difficult match. For me it's important to try to recover and focus on my serve, try to be focused, get opportunities whenever I have them.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I was just trying to fight. The first game of the match was really tough because it cost me the set, and then in the second I was just trying to stay closer to the score, even if I'm losing. I'm super happy that I won this match.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-08-08TorontoR32hardCoco Gauff6-4 6-7 7-6

Statistics

This season
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Even
94
98
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
96
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Gauff C.40%
Rybakina E.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakina E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gauff C.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 2035
Surface ELO
5.9+75 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 2071
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 2122
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
9.29 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.39 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Clear edge
69
51

Gauff C.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 120 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 92%

Draw