Nicolas Mejia vs Jacob FearnleyCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · ATP · Q64
#122ATP
1477ELO
1424Hard ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#107ATP
1600ELO
1565Hard ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
Mejia N.
6-3 3-6 6-2
Fearnley J.
Mejia N.
6362
Fearnley J.
3621

Nicolas Mejia defeated Jacob Fearnley in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in favor of Mejia. Key stats included Mejia's 4 service breaks compared to Fearnley's 2, and Mejia converting 50% of break points while Fearnley converted 33%.

Key context

  • Match story: Nicolas Mejia closed it out in three sets, 6–3 3–6 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
47%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.0
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
26
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
96
Break points won·Dominant
6
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
40
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Mejia N.37%
Fearnley J.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fearnley J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1424
Surface ELO
6.8+141 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1600
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.8Won 64% in Usa (47)
Country comfort
7.1Won 86% in Usa (28)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
87

Mejia N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw