Mariano Navone vs Raphael CollignonCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#44ATP
1822ELO
1693Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#38ATP
1894ELO
1837Hard ELO
$642kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLLL
Navone M.
6-3 7-6
Collignon R.
Navone M.
672
Collignon R.
360

Mariano Navone defeated Raphael Collignon in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 7-6 on hard courts. Navone served 1 ace and committed 0 double faults, while Collignon had 7 aces and 8 double faults. Navone converted 15% of break points and broke Collignon's serve twice, compared to Collignon's one service break and 33% break point conversion.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2020-11-17M15 Sharm El Sheikh 13Q16hardMariano Navone7-5 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
73%
64%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
7.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
49
73
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
90
Break points won·Dominant
88
55
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Navone M.36%
Collignon R.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Collignon R. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1693
Surface ELO
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
4.1Overall Elo 1822
ELO gap
5.9Overall Elo 1894
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
83
92

Navone M.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Collignon R.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw