Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jan ChoinskiCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#50ATP
1741ELO
1636Hard ELO
$730kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#77ATP
1686ELO
1571Hard ELO
$265kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Tirante T.
7-6 6-7 7-6
Choinski J.
Tirante T.
7672
Choinski J.
6761

Thiago Agustin Tirante defeated Jan Choinski in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 in favor of Tirante. Both players recorded 2 service breaks, with Tirante having more aces (20) and a higher first-serve win percentage (78) compared to Choinski's 14 aces and 72% first-serve win percentage.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
39
55
Break points saved·Clear edge
75
90
Break points won·Slight edge
15
20
Deciding sets·Even
91
87
Tiebreaks·Dominant
12
41

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Tirante T.75%
Choinski J.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tirante T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+65 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1571
5.7Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1686
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
53
84

Tirante T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 93 games (7d) · Choinski J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw