Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Miomir KecmanovicCincinnati Round of 128

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 128
#76ATP
1759ELO
1642Hard ELO
$653kYTD
$2.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#66ATP
1768ELO
1709Hard ELO
$777kYTD
$9.0MCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLLWW
Ugo Carabelli C.
3-6 3-6
Kecmanovic M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
330
Kecmanovic M.
662

Miomir Kecmanovic defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Round of 128 at the Cincinnati tournament, winning 6-3, 6-3 on hard courts. Kecmanovic and Ugo Carabelli tied with five aces each, but Kecmanovic had fewer double faults, 3 to 6. Kecmanovic converted 33% of break points and won 77% of first-serve points to advance.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Even
60%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
5.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
50
28
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
94
Break points won·Even
41
37
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
11
Tiebreaks·Dominant
3
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Ugo Carabelli C.34%
Kecmanovic M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kecmanovic M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1642
Surface ELO
5.8+68 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1768
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
75

Ugo Carabelli C.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Kecmanovic M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw