Emiliana Arango vs Aliaksandra SasnovichCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#95WTA
1624ELO
1576Hard ELO
25 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 13 August 2026 ·
hard
#138WTA
1726ELO
1697Hard ELO
32 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
Arango E.
3-6 6-4 6-4
Sasnovich A.
Arango E.
3662
Sasnovich A.
6441

Emiliana Arango defeated Aliaksandra Sasnovich 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Arango hit 3 aces and 6 double faults, winning 65% of her first-serve points and converting 40% of her break points. She won 4 service breaks to Sasnovich's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
71%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.0
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 46). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
23
38
Break points saved·Even
10
14
Break points won·Dominant
35
91
Deciding sets·Even
68
69
Tiebreaks·
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Arango E.36%
Sasnovich A.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sasnovich A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1576
Surface ELO
6.5+121 Hard Elo edge
3.7Overall Elo 1624
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1726
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
1.01 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.8Won 63% in Usa (60)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
91

Arango E.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Sasnovich A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw