Francesco Maestrelli vs Bu YunchaoketeCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · ATP · Q64
#166ATP
1538ELO
1551Hard ELO
$298kYTD
$882kCAREER
23 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
#120ATP
1709ELO
1644Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLL
Maestrelli F.
6-7 4-6
Yunchaokete B.
Maestrelli F.
6640
Yunchaokete B.
7862

Bu Yunchaokete defeated Francesco Maestrelli 7-6, 6-4 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Bu Yunchaokete hit 5 aces and 3 double faults, while converting 67 percent of break points and winning 80 percent of first-serve points. Francesco Maestrelli had 6 aces and 1 double fault, converting 50 percent of break points and also winning 80 percent of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
74%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
46%
58%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
68%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
72%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.6
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
3
Break points saved·Slight edge
83
92
Break points won·Slight edge
14
8
Deciding sets·Dominant
83
0
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Maestrelli F.46%
Yunchaokete B.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Hard Elo 1551
Surface ELO
6.2+93 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1538
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1709
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
94
88

Maestrelli F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CFog
Wind 38 km/hHumidity 97%

Draw