Takuya Kumasaka vs Hayato MatsuokaAstana Round of 16

Astana · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#556ATP
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 1st on
#314ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWLW
Kumasaka T.
4-6 1-6
Matsuoka H.
Kumasaka T.
410
Matsuoka H.
662

Hayato Matsuoka defeated Takuya Kumasaka in the Round of 16 at the Astana tournament, winning 6-4, 6-1 on hard courts. Matsuoka converted 50% of his break points and won 88% of his first-serve points, while also serving four breaks to Kumasaka's none. The two players hit one ace apiece, with Matsuoka committing three double faults to Kumasaka's one.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-11-24M15 Ipoh Perak 1QFhardTakuya Kumasaka7-6(7) 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
59%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
53%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Kumasaka T.36%
Matsuoka H.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Matsuoka H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
4.24 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
89
57

Kumasaka T.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Matsuoka H.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw