Eva Lys vs Katarzyna KawaCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#92WTA
1791ELO
1770Hard ELO
24 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
#133WTA
1664ELO
1489Hard ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLLWWW
Lys E.
5-7 6-1 6-4
Kawa K.
Lys E.
5662
Kawa K.
7141

Eva Lys defeated Katarzyna Kawa 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Lys hit 0 aces and 5 double faults, while winning 61 percent of her first serves and converting 53 percent of her break points. Kawa recorded 3 aces and 7 double faults, winning 49 percent of her first serves and converting 60 percent of her break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
56%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
45%
Service points won·Even
50%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
47%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.8
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
45
51
Break points saved·Slight edge
9
15
Break points won·Even
96
93
Deciding sets·Clear edge
66
88
Tiebreaks·
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Lys E.76%
Kawa K.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Lys E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.5+280 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.5Hard Elo 1489
6.6Overall Elo 1791
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1664
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.41 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.8Won 62% in Usa (72)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
77
93

Lys E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Kawa K.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CRain
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw