Hugo Gaston vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · ATP · Q64
#97ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
#155ATP
1620ELO
1598Hard ELO
$293kYTD
$747kCAREER
19 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLWWLL
Gaston H.
2-6 6-3 4-6
Budkov Kjaer N.
Gaston H.
2641
Budkov Kjaer N.
6362

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer defeated Hugo Gaston 6-2, 3-6, 6-4 in a qualifying second-round match at the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Kjaer hit four aces and four double faults, winning 74 percent of his first-serve points and converting 57 percent of his break points. Gaston finished with no aces and five double faults, winning 58 percent of his first-serve points and converting 38 percent of his break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
53%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
57
67
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
78
Break points won·Even
35
39
Deciding sets·Clear edge
72
96
Tiebreaks·Even
81
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Gaston H.48%
Budkov Kjaer N.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+30 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1598
5.0Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1620
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
91
84

Gaston H.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Budkov Kjaer N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CRain
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw