Moez Echargui vs Michael ZhengCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · ATP · Q64
#197ATP
1416ELO
1408Hard ELO
$171kYTD
$469kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
#110ATP
1695ELO
1672Hard ELO
$310kYTD
$502kCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
Echargui M.
7-5 2-6 4-6
Zheng M.
Echargui M.
7241
Zheng M.
5662

Michael Zheng defeated Moez Echargui in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Zheng won the match 5-7, 6-2, 6-4. He hit 6 aces and 2 double faults, converting 86 percent of his break points and winning 67 percent of his first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
35%
39%
Break points saved·Even
62%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Echargui M.21%
Zheng M.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zheng M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.7Hard Elo 1408
Surface ELO
8.3+264 Hard Elo edge
1.5Overall Elo 1416
ELO gap
8.5Overall Elo 1695
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
5.9Won 65% in Usa (49)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
88
59

Echargui M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Zheng M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 108 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CFog
Wind 38 km/hHumidity 97%

Draw