Rebecca Marino vs Alina CharaevaCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#377WTA
1626ELO
1591Hard ELO
35 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
#113WTA
1694ELO
1605Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLLW
Marino R.
3-6 3-6
Charaeva A.
Marino R.
330
Charaeva A.
662

Alina Charaeva defeated Rebecca Marino 6-3, 6-3 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Charaeva hit 4 aces to Marino's 2 and converted 44% of her break points compared to Marino's 33%. Charaeva won 74% of her first serves to Marino's 54%, and she broke Marino's serve 4 times to Marino's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
56%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
59%
Return points won·Even
44%
42%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.0
3.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
1
56
Break points saved·Dominant
20
75
Break points won·Dominant
10
85
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
69
Tiebreaks·Dominant
61
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Marino R.54%
Charaeva A.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1591
Surface ELO
5.2+14 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1626
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1694
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.36 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.4Won 73% in Usa (33)
Country comfort
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
96
82

Marino R.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Charaeva A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CFog
Wind 38 km/hHumidity 97%

Draw