Anastasia Zakharova vs Lucrezia StefaniniCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#91WTA
1742ELO
1714Hard ELO
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
#142WTA
1527ELO
1497Hard ELO
28 yrs · 164 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWWW
Zakharova A.
4-6 2-6
Stefanini L.
Zakharova A.
420
Stefanini L.
662

Lucrezia Stefanini defeated Anastasia Zakharova in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, winning 6-4, 6-2. Stefanini had a first-serve win percentage of 60% to Zakharova's 40%, and converted 55% of her break points to Zakharova's 30%. Stefanini won 6 service breaks to Zakharova's 3.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-10Australian OpenQ128hardLucrezia Stefanini6-3 7-5
2022-02-05W25 Sharm ElSheikhSFhardLucrezia Stefanini6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
76%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
56%
52%
Return points won·Even
44%
47%
Break points saved·Even
52%
52%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
0.6
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (46 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
55
32
Break points saved·Clear edge
47
26
Break points won·Slight edge
87
96
Deciding sets·Slight edge
67
60
Tiebreaks·Dominant
84
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Zakharova A.69%
Stefanini L.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Zakharova A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.7+216 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.3Hard Elo 1497
7.7Overall Elo 1742
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1527
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.64 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in Usa (33)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
96
78

Zakharova A.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Stefanini L.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw