Garrett Johns vs Mees Rottgering

Brownsburg · CHALLENGER · Q16

USA5

Garrett Johns

#390ATP

1336ELO

1323Hard ELO

25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWWLLWWL

0 — 2

Sets

Tuesday, 11 August 2026 · 18:45

hard

ED BRUNE COURT · 2nd on

NEDQ

Mees Rottgering

#418ATP

1468ELO

1449Hard ELO

19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWLWLWLW

Johns G.

3-6 3-6

Rottgering M.

Johns G.

330

Rottgering M.

662

Mees Rottgering defeated Garrett Johns 6-3, 6-3 in the quarterfinals of the Brownsburg hard-court tournament. Rottgering converted 57% of his break points and won 78% of his first-serve points. He won four service breaks to Johns' one.

Key context

Match story: Mees Rottgering dropped just 6 games past Garrett Johns.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Johns G.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Rottgering M.

Rottgering M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Johns G.

Serve advantage — Johns G.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Johns G.Rottgering M.

1st serve in·Slight edge

62%

57%

1st serve points won·Even

65%

62%

2nd serve points won·Even

53%

50%

Service points won·Even

61%

57%

Return points won·Even

40%

38%

Break points saved·Even

57%

60%

Aces / match·Even

2.6

3.0

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.7

3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Johns G.49%

Rottgering M.51%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Johns G.

4.3

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Rottgering M.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.4Hard Elo 1323

Surface ELO

6.6+125 Hard Elo edge

3.4Overall Elo 1336

ELO gap

6.6Overall Elo 1468

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.73 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.17 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

6.4Won 73% in Usa (95)

Country comfort

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Johns G.Rottgering M.

Freshness·Clear edge

Johns G.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Rottgering M.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather

29°CClear

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 78%

Garrett Johns vs Mees Rottgering — Brownsburg Q16

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Statistics

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return