Polina Iatcenko vs Claire LiuCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#160WTA
1605ELO
1567Hard ELO
22 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
#114WTA
1669ELO
1635Hard ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWWWW
Iatcenko P.
4-6 2-6
Liu C.
Iatcenko P.
420
Liu C.
662

Claire Liu defeated Polina Iatcenko 6-4, 6-2 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Liu hit 6 aces and 2 double faults, winning 75 percent of her first serves and converting 71 percent of her break points. Liu won 5 service breaks to Iatcenko's 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
47%
Service points won·Even
56%
57%
Return points won·Even
44%
47%
Break points saved·Even
51%
54%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 45). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Iatcenko P.41%
Liu C.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Liu C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1567
Surface ELO
5.9+68 Hard Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1605
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1669
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.48 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.1Won 68% in Usa (79)
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
96
89

Iatcenko P.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Liu C.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw