Robin Montgomery vs Julia GrabherCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · WTA · Q64
#199WTA
1739ELO
1649Hard ELO
21 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
#118WTA
1613ELO
1486Hard ELO
30 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Montgomery R.
4-6 7-5 6-3
Grabher J.
Montgomery R.
4762
Grabher J.
6531

Robin Montgomery defeated Julia Grabher in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in favor of Montgomery. Montgomery and Grabher were even in aces (8-8) and double faults (6-7), but Montgomery had a higher first-serve win percentage (89-81) and converted more break points (50-17), ultimately securing two service breaks to Grabher's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
42%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.0
1.5
Double faults / match·Even
5.0
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
16
Break points saved·Dominant
81
4
Break points won·Clear edge
44
60
Deciding sets·Dominant
65
36
Tiebreaks·
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Montgomery R.69%
Grabher J.31%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Montgomery R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+163 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1486
6.6Overall Elo 1739
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1613
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.43 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Won 67% in Usa (66)
Country comfort
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
91

Montgomery R.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Grabher J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw