Luciano Darderi vs Brandon Nakashima — Montreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
Luciano Darderi
ITA19
Luciano Darderi
#20ATP
1835ELO
1678Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
Brandon Nakashima
USA28
Brandon Nakashima
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
Darderi L.
2-6 3-6
Nakashima B.
Darderi L.
230
Nakashima B.
662

Brandon Nakashima advanced to the Montreal quarterfinals with a 6-2, 6-3 win over Luciano Darderi. Nakashima hit 11 aces and converted 38% of his break points, while Darderi struggled with six double faults and no break points converted. Nakashima secured three service breaks en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-20ViennaR32hardBrandon Nakashima6-2 7-5
2025-05-18HamburgR16clayLuciano Darderi7-5 6-7 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
60%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
67
36
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
96
Break points won·Clear edge
22
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
96
37
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
96
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Darderi L.35%
Nakashima B.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Darderi L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Nakashima B.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
6.4+109 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1834
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1839
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Darderi L.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Dominant
82
52

Darderi L.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 57%

Draw