Daniel Michalski vs Lorenzo CarboniTodi Round of 32

Todi · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#330ATP
1435ELO
1386Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
clay
GRANDSTAND · 5th on
#490ATP
1161ELO
1166Clay ELO
20 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLLWWWW
Michalski D.
6-0 6-3
Carboni L.
Michalski D.
662
Carboni L.
030

Daniel Michalski defeated Lorenzo Carboni in the Round of 32 at the Todi tournament on clay. Michalski won the match 6-0, 6-3, converting 71% of his break points and securing five service breaks. Michalski hit two aces and one double fault, while Carboni hit one ace and two double faults.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-09-19M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 7QFclayDaniel Michalski6-2 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
52%
53%
Aces / match·Even
2.4
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Michalski D.59%
Carboni L.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Michalski D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.8+220 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Clay Elo 1166
8.4Overall Elo 1435
ELO gap
1.6Overall Elo 1160
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
2.73 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
86

Michalski D.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Carboni L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
35°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 26%

Draw