Luca Van Assche vs Gustavo HeideCincinnati Q64

Cincinnati · ATP · Q64
#54ATP
1701ELO
1681Hard ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
#133ATP
1695ELO
1536Hard ELO
$178kYTD
$620kCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWWL
Van Assche L.
6-3 6-4
Heide G.
Van Assche L.
662
Heide G.
340

Luca Van Assche defeated Gustavo Heide 6-3, 6-4 in the qualifying round 64 of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament. Van Assche converted both of his break points and won 83% of his first serves to secure the win. He hit 2 aces and 5 double faults, compared to Heide's 4 aces and 2 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
62%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Even
63%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
5.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
31
51
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
90
Break points won·Even
7
10
Deciding sets·Clear edge
50
63
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
64
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Van Assche L.66%
Heide G.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Van Assche L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+146 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1536
5.1Overall Elo 1701
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1695
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.46 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.63 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
85

Van Assche L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d) · Heide G.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw