Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elina SvitolinaToronto Quarter-final

Toronto · WTA · Quarter-final
#18WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
#9WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
Alexandrova E.
6-3 0-6 3-6
Svitolina E.
Alexandrova E.
6031
Svitolina E.
3662

Elina Svitolina defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Toronto quarterfinals, 3-6, 6-0, 6-3. Svitolina converted 75 percent of her break points and won 74 percent of her first-serve points. Svitolina won 6 service breaks to Alexandrova's 3.

Around the match

  • I think she was playing really well, serving really unreturnable. I had to find opportunities to see the ball better and focus on myself more.

    Svitolina E.WTA Tennis
  • I think the things that I can control is my mindset and taking one point at a time. It's going to be about trying to find the keys in that game.

    Svitolina E.WTA Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassEkaterina Alexandrova6-4 7-5
2021-03-22MiamiR32hardElina Svitolina7-6 6-4
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR16hardElina Svitolina6-2 6-7 7-6
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR32clayElina Svitolina6-4 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
46%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
91
Break points saved·Clear edge
71
83
Break points won·Even
95
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
52
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
19
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Alexandrova E.22%
Svitolina E.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
7.5+198 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 2070
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
56
66

Alexandrova E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 72%

Draw