Diana Shnaider vs Iga Swiatek — Toronto Quarter-final

Toronto · WTA · Quarter-final
Diana Shnaider
RUS15
Diana Shnaider
#14WTA
1891ELO
1833Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.3MCAREER
22 yrs · 170 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
Iga Swiatek
POL7
Iga Swiatek
#5WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWLWW
Shnaider D.
2-6 1-6
Swiatek I.
Shnaider D.
210
Swiatek I.
662

Iga Swiatek advanced to the semifinals of the Toronto tournament, defeating Diana Shnaider 6-2, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. Swiatek did not hit an ace but converted 56% of her break points, winning 88% of her first-serve points. She secured five service breaks en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-22MadridR16clayIga Swiatek6-0 6-7 6-4

Statistics

This season
Shnaider D.Swiatek I.
1st serve in·Even
66%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
57%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.3
2.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Shnaider D.Swiatek I.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
82
97
Break points saved·Clear edge
63
87
Break points won·Even
98
100
Deciding sets·Slight edge
89
96
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
88
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Shnaider D.35%
Swiatek I.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Swiatek I. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Shnaider D.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Swiatek I.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1833
Surface ELO
7.4+189 Hard Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1891
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 2064
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Shnaider D.Swiatek I.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
63

Shnaider D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw