Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Jakub MensikMontreal Round of 16

Montreal · ATP · Round of 16
#59ATP
1743ELO
1711Hard ELO
$690kYTD
$6.6MCAREER
30 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#16ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLWLWL
Van De Zandschulp B.
4-6 5-7
Mensik J.
Van De Zandschulp B.
450
Mensik J.
672

Jakub Mensik defeated Botic Van De Zandschulp in the Round of 16 at the Montreal tournament, winning 6-4, 7-5 on hard courts. Mensik hit 13 aces to Van De Zandschulp's 1 and converted 75% of his break points, compared to Van De Zandschulp's 50%. Mensik won 3 service breaks to Van De Zandschulp's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Even
63%
67%
Return points won·Even
38%
36%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.6
11.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
5.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
69
85
Break points saved·Even
93
96
Break points won·Clear edge
51
71
Deciding sets·Slight edge
82
90
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
78
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Van De Zandschulp B.26%
Mensik J.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mensik J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.7Hard Elo 1710
Surface ELO
7.3+182 Hard Elo edge
2.6Overall Elo 1743
ELO gap
7.4Overall Elo 1931
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.95 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
70
62

Van De Zandschulp B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Mensik J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw