Maximilian Homberg vs Lorenzo CarboniTodi Q16

Todi · CHALLENGER · Q16
#831ATP
23 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#490ATP
1161ELO
1166Clay ELO
20 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWWW
Homberg M.
1-6 1-6
Carboni L.
Homberg M.
110
Carboni L.
662

Lorenzo Carboni defeated Maximilian Homberg 6-1, 6-1 in the quarterfinals of the Todi clay tournament. Carboni converted 67% of his break points and won 63% of his first-serve points, compared to Homberg's 25% and 52%, respectively. Carboni also served six breaks to Homberg's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
69%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.0
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.7
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Homberg M.37%
Carboni L.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carboni L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
94
86

Homberg M.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carboni L.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw