Liudmila Samsonova vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Round of 16

Toronto · WTA · Round of 16
Liudmila Samsonova
RUS
Liudmila Samsonova
#43WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Samsonova L.
4-6 6-4 4-6
Rybakina E.
Samsonova L.
4641
Rybakina E.
6462

Elena Rybakina defeated Liudmila Samsonova in the Round of 16 at the Toronto tournament, winning 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Rybakina hit 11 aces to Samsonova's 1 and committed 6 double faults to Samsonova's 9. Rybakina won 7 service breaks to Samsonova's 6.

Around the match

  • Rybakina has recovered from poor form across multiple hard-court events to become the only WTA player reaching the round of 16 at all seven WTA 1000 tournaments this season.

    Rybakina E.The Tennis Gazette ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Elena Rybakina edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

4–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-18StrasbourgFclayElena Rybakina6-1 6-7 6-1
2024-02-05Abu DhabiSFhardElena Rybakina6-0 4-6 6-2
2023-10-02BeijingSFhardLiudmila Samsonova7-6 6-3
2023-08-07MontrealSFhardLiudmila Samsonova1-6 6-1 6-2
2022-09-19TokyoR32hardLiudmila Samsonova6-2 6-4
2021-08-09MontrealR64hardLiudmila Samsonova6-4 5-7 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Samsonova L.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
58%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
Return points won·Even
43%
42%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
6.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Samsonova L.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
54
99
Break points saved·Clear edge
73
96
Break points won·Even
92
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
37
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
35
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Samsonova L.16%
Rybakina E.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Samsonova L.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.2Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
9.8+387 Hard Elo edge
0.7Overall Elo 1775
ELO gap
9.3Overall Elo 2122
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
6.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
9.29 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Samsonova L.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Clear edge
75
58

Samsonova L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw