Lucas Poullain vs Ilia SimakinIstanbul 2 Final

Istanbul 2 · CHALLENGER · Final
#369ATP
1295ELO
1286Hard ELO
30 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#267ATP
1463ELO
1505Hard ELO
22 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWWL
Poullain L.
5-7 6-2 6-3
Simakin I.
Poullain L.
5662
Simakin I.
7231

Lucas Poullain won the final of the Istanbul 2 hard-court tournament, defeating Ilia Simakin 5-7, 6-2, 6-3. The match was decided over three sets. Poullain emerged victorious to claim the title.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.5
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
0.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
58
Break points saved·Dominant
31
87
Break points won·Slight edge
21
26
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
79
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
76
70

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Poullain L.43%
Simakin I.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.3Hard Elo 1286
Surface ELO
7.7+219 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1295
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1463
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
87

Poullain L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Simakin I.: 10 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw