Colin Sinclair vs Alibek KachmazovAstana Q32

Astana · CHALLENGER · Q32
#509ATP
31 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 4th on
#835ATP
1490ELO
1467Hard ELO
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLLLLW
Sinclair C.
7-6 6-7 6-2
Kachmazov A.
Sinclair C.
7662
Kachmazov A.
6721

Colin Sinclair defeated Alibek Kachmazov in the semifinals of the Astana tournament, winning 7-6, 6-7, 6-2 on hard courts. Sinclair served 12 aces and committed 3 double faults, converting 38% of break points and winning 83% of first-serve points. He broke Kachmazov's serve 3 times, while Kachmazov broke once.

Key context

  • Match story: Colin Sinclair closed it out in three sets, 7–6 6–7 6–2.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
62%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
61%
41%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.7
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.1
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
17
49
Break points saved·Slight edge
75
82
Break points won·Slight edge
11
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
27
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Sinclair C.29%
Kachmazov A.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kachmazov A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.81 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
95

Sinclair C.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kachmazov A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 26%

Draw