Joel Schwaerzler vs Andrea Guerrieri — Grodzisk Mazowiecki Final

Grodzisk Mazowiecki · CHALLENGER · Final
AUT3
Joel Schwaerzler
#150ATP
1577ELO
1519Hard ELO
$102kYTD
$301kCAREER
20 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
ITA4
Andrea Guerrieri
#189ATP
1545ELO
1393Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWL
Schwaerzler J.
7-6 6-1
Guerrieri A.
Schwaerzler J.
762
Guerrieri A.
610

Joel Schwaerzler won the final of the Grodzisk Mazowiecki hard-court tournament, defeating Andrea Guerrieri 7-6, 6-1. Schwaerzler served eight aces to Guerrieri's three and converted 40% of his break points, compared to Guerrieri's 0%. Schwaerzler also broke Guerrieri's serve twice in the match.

Key context

  • Match story: Joel Schwaerzler came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Schwaerzler J.Guerrieri A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.7
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Schwaerzler J.Guerrieri A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
62
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
80
Break points won·Dominant
4
40
Deciding sets·Even
83
84
Tiebreaks·
77
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Schwaerzler J.49%
Guerrieri A.51%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Schwaerzler J.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Guerrieri A.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.6+126 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1393
5.4Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1545
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Schwaerzler J.Guerrieri A.
Freshness·Clear edge
67
54

Schwaerzler J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Guerrieri A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw