Andre Ilagan vs Edas ButvilasLexington Final

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Final
#210ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM 1 · 1st on
#204ATP
1544ELO
1499Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLLL
Ilagan A.
2-6 6-1 6-7
Butvilas E.
Ilagan A.
2661
Butvilas E.
6172

Edas Butvilas won the Lexington final, defeating Andre Ilagan 6-2, 1-6, 7-6. Butvilas hit 13 aces to Ilagan's 5 and won 77% of his first-serve points, compared to Ilagan's 69%. Butvilas converted 25% of his break points, while Ilagan converted 43%, with Butvilas ultimately securing 2 service breaks to Ilagan's 3.

Key context

  • Match story: Edas Butvilas closed it out in three sets, 6–2 1–6 7–6.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
39%
Break points saved·Even
67%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
5.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
37
21
Break points saved·Slight edge
76
85
Break points won·Clear edge
17
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
71
15
Tiebreaks·Dominant
14
43

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Ilagan A.44%
Butvilas E.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.2+19 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1499
5.0Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1544
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
5.7Won 61% in Usa (49)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
56
71

Ilagan A.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Butvilas E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°CMainly clear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw