Learner Tien vs Tommy PaulMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#12ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLLWWLLW
Tien L.
6-3 6-2
Paul T.
Tien L.
662
Paul T.
320

Learner Tien defeated Tommy Paul 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 32 of the Montreal hard-court tournament. Tien did not hit an ace but converted 50% of his break points, compared to Paul's 40%, en route to the win. Tien won six service breaks to Paul's two.

Around the match

  • I think I've sweat more tonight than I ever have in my life. But I'm just really happy to come through.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-16Delray BeachSFhardTommy Paul4-6 6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.7
6.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
92
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
97
Break points won·Even
88
88
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
100
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Tien L.46%
Paul T.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.3+23 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1881
4.9Overall Elo 1941
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1948
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
72
78

Tien L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 56 games (7d) · Paul T.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 87%

Draw