Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon NakashimaMontreal Round of 16

Montreal · ATP · Round of 16
#28ATP
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
$855kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#22ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
Rinderknech A.
6-7 7-5 5-7
Nakashima B.
Rinderknech A.
6751
Nakashima B.
7572

Brandon Nakashima defeated Arthur Rinderknech in the Round of 16 at the Montreal tournament, winning 7-6, 5-7, 7-5 on hard courts. The match saw Nakashima record 16 aces and 2 double faults, while Rinderknech had 17 aces and 6 double faults. Both players converted 3 service breaks, with Nakashima winning 74% of first-serve points and Rinderknech at 80%, and Nakashima converting 33% of break points to Rinderknech's 60%.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-22LyonR16clayBrandon Nakashima7-6 1-6 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
68%
69%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
12.4
10.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
0.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
45
36
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Even
2
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
87
37
Tiebreaks·Dominant
24
81

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Rinderknech A.41%
Nakashima B.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Nakashima B. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
5.5+40 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1839
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
52

Rinderknech A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 98 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw