Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekToronto Round of 16

Toronto · WTA · Round of 16
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTRE COURT · 1st on
#5WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWLW
Kostyuk M.
6-3 1-6 2-6
Swiatek I.
Kostyuk M.
6121
Swiatek I.
3662

Iga Swiatek advanced to the quarterfinals in Toronto with a 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 win over Marta Kostyuk in the Round of 16. Swiatek converted 47% of her break points and won seven service breaks to Kostyuk's four. Swiatek had zero aces and two double faults, compared to Kostyuk's one ace and zero double faults.

Around the match

  • I read quite a lot, just when I have some time off. I'm not watching anything currently, so most of the time goes to reading, but it's not anything planned.

    Swiatek I.WTA Tennis
  • Well, I probably wasn't aware how far I can throw. I think that was really it. I wanted to throw it further in the stands. But, yeah, it went a little too far. I was really surprised with the strength I have.

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis
  • To have fun and to be positive when everything is good is really easy, and I think everyone can do it. How you deal with difficult moments, and how you handle losses, this is the part where I feel like you can always improve.

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis
  • For sure it was a good day and I'm really happy with the way I played. I played back her slice pretty well so the change of rhythm didn't bother me that much.

    Swiatek I.Inquirer.net

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

13
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-31Roland GarrosR16clayMarta Kostyuk7-5 6-1
2024-08-12CincinnatiR16hardIga Swiatek6-2 6-2
2024-03-06Indian WellsSFhardIga Swiatek6-2 6-1
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR16clayIga Swiatek6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.5
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
97
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
87
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
80
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.42%
Swiatek I.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1968
Surface ELO
5.7+54 Hard Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 2064
1.8Trails 0–3 on hard
H2H
8.2Leads 3–0 on hard
7.07 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
66
63

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d) · Swiatek I.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 94%

Draw