Spencer Johnson vs Andre IlaganLexington Semi-final

Lexington · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#445ATP
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM 1 · 1st on
#210ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Johnson S.
4-6 4-6
Ilagan A.
Johnson S.
440
Ilagan A.
662

Andre Ilagan defeated Spencer Johnson 6-4, 6-4 in the semifinals of the Lexington hard-court tournament. Ilagan hit 4 aces and 2 double faults, winning 67% of his first serves and converting 50% of break points. He secured 3 service breaks to Johnson's 1, advancing to the next round.

Key context

  • Match story: Andre Ilagan edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-28M15 San Diego 1R32hardAndre Ilagan4-6 7-6(6) 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
59%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
68%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.1
4.2
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Johnson S.44%
Ilagan A.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.9Won 81% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
5.6Won 60% in Usa (48)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
94
68

Johnson S.: 12 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Ilagan A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 65%

Draw