Caty Mcnally vs Alexandra Eala — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Caty Mcnally
USA
Caty Mcnally
#70WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
Alexandra Eala
PHI25
Alexandra Eala
#20WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWWWL
Mcnally C.
3-6 7-5 4-6
Eala A.
Mcnally C.
3741
Eala A.
6562

Alexandra Eala defeated Caty McNally in the Round of 32 at the Toronto tournament. Eala won with a score of 6-3, 5-7, 6-4. The match saw Eala hit 2 aces and 2 double faults, while McNally hit 1 ace and 5 double faults.

Around the match

  • McNally achieved a career-high 22nd WTA-level victory this season by mounting a remarkable comeback from 5-1 down against Wimbledon champion Noskova.

    Mcnally C.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “There are so many Filipinos in the crowd, so many flags. Thank you!”

    Eala A.The New York Times ↗

  • “It's the pleasure of my life to experience crowds like this.”

    Eala A.The New York Times ↗

  • “I just kept my energy up and tried to play one point at a time. I think that was the biggest thing: sticking to my routines and playing my game.”

    Mcnally C.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Alexandra Eala closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Mcnally C.Eala A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
48%
Service points won·Even
55%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.2
1.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mcnally C.Eala A.
Clutch Rating·Even
45
41
Break points saved·Clear edge
31
12
Break points won·Slight edge
94
83
Deciding sets·Dominant
33
65
Tiebreaks·
79
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Mcnally C.35%
Eala A.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Eala A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mcnally C.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Eala A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1731
Surface ELO
6.3+102 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1817
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1895
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
9.06-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mcnally C.Eala A.
Freshness·Slight edge
87
77

Mcnally C.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Eala A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw