Ann Li vs Elena Rybakina — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Ann Li
USA28
Ann Li
#29WTA
1807ELO
1746Hard ELO
$837kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.7MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Li A.
2-6 5-7
Rybakina E.
Li A.
250
Rybakina E.
672

Elena Rybakina defeated Ann Li in the Round of 32 of the Toronto tournament, winning 6-2, 7-5 on hard courts. Rybakina hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, while Li had 0 aces and 4 double faults. Rybakina converted 83% of her break points and made 5 service breaks, compared to Li's 50% conversion rate and 2 service breaks.

Around the match

  • “I want to see better serve, the percentage. Today in key moments it worked, but still the percentage is quite low. I'm still adapting a bit to the jet lag and everything, so maybe energy level could be better.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

  • “I feel I can play good on all the surfaces. This time maybe grass wasn't the result I wanted, and clay also, but I don't think it's because of the surface. I think it's mostly about my preparation and the mentality I go to play the tournament.”

    Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Li A.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
60%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
42%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
66%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.4
6.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Li A.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
43
99
Break points saved·Dominant
27
96
Break points won·Clear edge
79
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
70
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
26
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Li A.15%
Rybakina E.85%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Li A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.4Hard Elo 1746
Surface ELO
9.6+364 Hard Elo edge
1.1Overall Elo 1806
ELO gap
8.9Overall Elo 2122
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.33 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Li A.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Dominant
83
58

Li A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 95%

Draw