Maya Joint vs Liudmila SamsonovaToronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
#67WTA
1659ELO
1657Hard ELO
$391kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
20 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
#43WTA
1775ELO
1723Hard ELO
$722kYTD
$8.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLW
Joint M.
5-7 7-6 2-6
Samsonova L.
Joint M.
5721
Samsonova L.
7662

Liudmila Samsonova defeated Maya Joint in the Round of 32 at the Toronto tournament, winning 7-5, 6-7, 6-2 on hard courts. Samsonova served 5 aces and committed 9 double faults, while converting 47% of break points and winning 71% of first-serve points. Samsonova won 7 service breaks to Joint's 4.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-06-30WimbledonR128grassLiudmila Samsonova6-3 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
56%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
57%
Return points won·Even
41%
43%
Break points saved·Even
56%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.9
4.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
77
54
Break points saved·Even
76
73
Break points won·Slight edge
99
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
77
37
Tiebreaks·
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Joint M.39%
Samsonova L.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Samsonova L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1657
Surface ELO
5.8+66 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1659
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1775
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.04 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
85
65

Joint M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw